Kieran Healy’s Weblog – The Dead Pool

Posted
6 February 2003 @ 8am

The Dead Pool

Josh Chaftez over at OxBlog has a pool going on when the bombing will start in Iraq:

Michael says Sunday, Feb. 16. I say Monday, March 3. David? Dan? Winner gets a round on the losers at the first Beer & Bush after the bombing starts.

We now know that the real losers in this war will be grad students who fail to accurately predict the date of its outbreak. Those beers can really cut into your stipend check. But not to worry: it’ll all be over by the end of Trinity term!

Update: Josh has realized how his Bombing Pool made him sound, apologized and gone back to doing what OxBlog is best at. Good for him.

Other current pools include:

To the nearest few hundred, how many people will die in terrorist attacks while the U.S. is busy in Iraq? Bonus points (an extra round): How many people will be saved from death in a terrorist attack as a result of the war?

On average, how many beers are soldiers in the Iraqi invasion and occupation forces likely to enjoy of a typical Friday?

While the U.S. is at war with Iraq, how many nuclear warheads will North Korea build, install on top of ballistic missiles, paint green and red, ship to Pyongyang, drape in banners reading “Hello! This is a People’s Glorious Ballistic Nuclear Missile! We’re Planning on Firing it at Seoul! Or maybe Tokyo!” and use in highly choreographed People’s Revolutionary Parades?

Will the OxBloggers decide to call their pool “March Madness”?

How many OxBlog readers would rather see the winners drafted to the front lines as a reward for their strategic nous?

If the OxBloggers are criticized for treating a war that poses no danger to themselves as a game, will they most likely

(a) Ignore it.
(b) Insist that they are the civilization being defended here, so they are “doing their bit”.
(c) Remind us that they are the inheritors of the grand tradition of Oxonian military strategy represented by such men as General Melchett. (Hear him in action.)
Dredge up a relative in the military, and so be innoculated against all charges of armchair generalship.
(e) Say their critics are the truly morally unserious ones in a deeper sense for not wanting (someone else) to go bomb Iraq to smithereens.

Finally, are other Warbloggers likely to

(a) Say OxBlog’s moral clarity seems somewhat fuzzier than usual today.
(b) Sign up for the pool.
(c) Condemn it as “icky.”

1 Comment

Posted by
Josh Chafetz
6 February 2003 @ 2pm

“If the OxBloggers are criticized for treating a war that poses no danger to themselves as a game, will they most likely … ”

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