Comments on: Russia and China http://www.kieranhealy.org/blog/archives/2003/08/29/russia-and-china/ Sociology and other distractions Fri, 31 Oct 2008 10:33:43 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0 By: Ben http://www.kieranhealy.org/blog/archives/2003/08/29/russia-and-china/comment-page-1/#comment-2201 Ben Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.kieranhealy.org/wordpress/?p=498#comment-2201 Presuming that this site's data is accurate... Russia's GDP fell by 1.2%/year over the 25 year period ending in 2000, and 4.6%/year in the 1990s. Ten Years: http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/eco_gdp_gro_199&int=-1 Twentyfive Years: http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/eco_gdp_gro_197&int=-1 Man that's bleak. The data on that site is facinating for laying waste to various insta-theories of "why". It's a shame you can't plot various stats against each other. I wonder if there is a well accepted set of statistics for various measures of social structure - i.e. bowling alone like metrics, damage of colonialism, % capricious deaths in living memory, availablity of local entertainment... Presuming that this site’s data is accurate…

Russia’s GDP fell by 1.2%/year over the 25 year period ending in 2000, and 4.6%/year in the 1990s.

Ten Years:
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/eco_gdp_gro_199&int=-1

Twentyfive Years: http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/eco_gdp_gro_197&int=-1

Man that’s bleak.

The data on that site is facinating for laying waste to various insta-theories of “why”. It’s a shame you can’t plot various stats against each other. I wonder if there is a well accepted set of statistics for various measures of social structure – i.e. bowling alone like metrics, damage of colonialism, % capricious deaths in living memory, availablity of local entertainment…

]]> By: John Isbell http://www.kieranhealy.org/blog/archives/2003/08/29/russia-and-china/comment-page-1/#comment-2202 John Isbell Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.kieranhealy.org/wordpress/?p=498#comment-2202 Kristof: "I’m sure I’ll regret saying this." I don't know if he will, but I'd hope the New York Times gets a raft of letters (as seems likely) and decides never to print this kind of cheap ethnic stereotyping in their paper again. I'd have thought they'd have stopped it years ago. Surely he could have fitted Jews or blacks into his overview? I can't think why he didn't. Kristof: “I’m sure I’ll regret saying this.”
I don’t know if he will, but I’d hope the New York Times gets a raft of letters (as seems likely) and decides never to print this kind of cheap ethnic stereotyping in their paper again. I’d have thought they’d have stopped it years ago.
Surely he could have fitted Jews or blacks into his overview? I can’t think why he didn’t.

]]> By: John Isbell http://www.kieranhealy.org/blog/archives/2003/08/29/russia-and-china/comment-page-1/#comment-2203 John Isbell Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.kieranhealy.org/wordpress/?p=498#comment-2203 The Simpsons had a lovely 1919 Itchy and Scratchy cartoon where Itchy runs into a Scotsman. Hoots mon! The Simpsons had a lovely 1919 Itchy and Scratchy cartoon where Itchy runs into a Scotsman. Hoots mon!

]]> By: R http://www.kieranhealy.org/blog/archives/2003/08/29/russia-and-china/comment-page-1/#comment-2204 R Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.kieranhealy.org/wordpress/?p=498#comment-2204 I seem to recall having heard arguments suggesting that economic change, especially free-market oriented ones, need to be supported by the right kinds of enforcing institutions (e.g. institutions to enforce contracts, etc.). Similar arguments have come up in the "planning" that preceded the invasion of Iraq. The main point was that market-economies are made possible by all sorts of trust relationships backed up by institutions, and this complexity and subtlety is what is often overlooked by naive cheerleaders of free-markets. Joseph Stiglitz makes similar points in his critique of globalization as practiced by the IMF and World Bank, or, basically, the US. In the case of Russia, corruption abounds, and so there are no accountable supporting institutions to create the right envirnoment for proto-capitalism. In China, well, I guess there's lots of discipline. If this view is right, I suppose it means that China's despots know what's good for them in the long run. I seem to recall having heard arguments suggesting that economic change, especially free-market oriented ones, need to be supported by the right kinds of enforcing institutions (e.g. institutions to enforce contracts, etc.). Similar arguments have come up in the “planning” that preceded the invasion of Iraq. The main point was that market-economies are made possible by all sorts of trust relationships backed up by institutions, and this complexity and subtlety is what is often overlooked by naive cheerleaders of free-markets. Joseph Stiglitz makes similar points in his critique of globalization as practiced by the IMF and World Bank, or, basically, the US. In the case of Russia, corruption abounds, and so there are no accountable supporting institutions to create the right envirnoment for proto-capitalism. In China, well, I guess there’s lots of discipline. If this view is right, I suppose it means that China’s despots know what’s good for them in the long run.

]]> By: John Isbell http://www.kieranhealy.org/blog/archives/2003/08/29/russia-and-china/comment-page-1/#comment-2205 John Isbell Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.kieranhealy.org/wordpress/?p=498#comment-2205 R: and you explained that without a series of remarks about what two Russians or Chinese people immediately do if you put them together. Could this be a new direction in economic theory? R: and you explained that without a series of remarks about what two Russians or Chinese people immediately do if you put them together. Could this be a new direction in economic theory?

]]> By: Dan http://www.kieranhealy.org/blog/archives/2003/08/29/russia-and-china/comment-page-1/#comment-2206 Dan Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.kieranhealy.org/wordpress/?p=498#comment-2206 Two quick points: 1. The question is not so much where have they gone, but where are they going. And ten years isn't much of a history to extrapolate. 2. Calling the Ukraine a democracy is really somewhat generous. Two quick points:

1. The question is not so much where have they gone, but where are they going. And ten years isn’t much of a history to extrapolate.
2. Calling the Ukraine a democracy is really somewhat generous.

]]> By: Dan http://www.kieranhealy.org/blog/archives/2003/08/29/russia-and-china/comment-page-1/#comment-2207 Dan Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.kieranhealy.org/wordpress/?p=498#comment-2207 One other quick thing - the data on both sides is pretty unreliable. The Chinese are known to be exaggerating their numbers (though realistic revisions are still quite impressive). Data from the end of the Soviet Union is probably even less reliable. One of my professors once handed my class a historical GDP chart with three lines - one relatively flat, one middling, and one quite steep. The steep line was the GDP data that the Soviets published. The middle line was the best estimation of Soviet GDP that the US government could come up with at the time. The flat line was the current estimate of Soviet GDP during the same time period, far lower than the Soviets had said or the Americans had thought. Trying to get an estimation of Soviet GDP data that's even remotely reliable is essentially impossible right now. One other quick thing – the data on both sides is pretty unreliable. The Chinese are known to be exaggerating their numbers (though realistic revisions are still quite impressive). Data from the end of the Soviet Union is probably even less reliable. One of my professors once handed my class a historical GDP chart with three lines – one relatively flat, one middling, and one quite steep. The steep line was the GDP data that the Soviets published. The middle line was the best estimation of Soviet GDP that the US government could come up with at the time. The flat line was the current estimate of Soviet GDP during the same time period, far lower than the Soviets had said or the Americans had thought. Trying to get an estimation of Soviet GDP data that’s even remotely reliable is essentially impossible right now.

]]> By: David Mercer http://www.kieranhealy.org/blog/archives/2003/08/29/russia-and-china/comment-page-1/#comment-2208 David Mercer Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.kieranhealy.org/wordpress/?p=498#comment-2208 Well over at The Peking Duck it's been pointed out how much of a house of cards China's growth has been. Nearly all of the banks are on the verge of collapse, and there are massive unemployment problems, in the cities AND the rural west of China. The 200,000 or so remaining govt. owned companies are almost all kept afloat by increasing govt. debt, and if they let the currency peg against the dollar float, much badness will result. Not to disparage the real gains of the last 10 years (they actually HAVE a middle class now!), but China is not all roses like most of the Western press would have us believe. And corruption there is rampant (rule of law and contract enforcement are sick jokes at best). Asian blogs paint a very different picture than the press. Russia now has the same GDP as Mexico, which is very sad. MEXICO. A very good friend of mine who left Russia in the early 90's said that their transition to 'capitalism' mostly consisted of transfering state owned enterprises to Party cronies and their gangster friends, hardly a good transition. And they are now sliding back into totalitarianism, except an elected one this time. As Putin himself said "Don't ever think that there is such a thing as an ex-KGB agent". They just changed the initials. Well over at The Peking Duck it’s been pointed out how much of a house of cards China’s growth has been. Nearly all of the banks are on the verge of collapse, and there are massive unemployment problems, in the cities AND the rural west of China. The 200,000 or so remaining govt. owned companies are almost all kept afloat by increasing govt. debt, and if they let the currency peg against the dollar float, much badness will result.

Not to disparage the real gains of the last 10 years (they actually HAVE a middle class now!), but China is not all roses like most of the Western press would have us believe. And corruption there is rampant (rule of law and contract enforcement are sick jokes at best). Asian blogs paint a very different picture than the press.

Russia now has the same GDP as Mexico, which is very sad. MEXICO.

A very good friend of mine who left Russia in the early 90’s said that their transition to ‘capitalism’ mostly consisted of transfering state owned enterprises to Party cronies and their gangster friends, hardly a good transition. And they are now sliding back into totalitarianism, except an elected one this time. As Putin himself said “Don’t ever think that there is such a thing as an ex-KGB agent”. They just changed the initials.

]]> By: France http://www.kieranhealy.org/blog/archives/2003/08/29/russia-and-china/comment-page-1/#comment-2209 France Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.kieranhealy.org/wordpress/?p=498#comment-2209 You can find more country GDP stats at indexmundi.com. Also in Spanish and French. You can find more country GDP stats at indexmundi.com. Also in Spanish and French.

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